16 February 2005

Syrious Stuff

So, the Syrian government coulda-woulda-shoulda-kinda did plan the assasination of the former PM of Lebanon. Sure, the guy spoke out against Syrian troops in Lebanon... but would the Syrian government really kill him over that? Okay, they're lunatics, so they would... but why all the fanfare over it? Why the big deal, especially in a time of increased Arab unity (against the US/Zionists "occupying entities" anyway)? Wouldn't it have been better for the Syrians to have killed the guy quietly to avoid mega-press, or are western countries the only ones who assasinate quietly and carefully?

Possible reasons for the assasination (from the Syrian standpoint):

Instigate a war between patriotic Lebanese and the occupying Syrian forces. Syria obviously believes that they will kick Lebanese butt (simply because of their military might compared to the Lebanese militia-like armies that would form) and officially take the territory over.... to what end? They already control the state as it is now.

Use military power to threaten the Lebanese into supporting them in a war against America. "We're the occupying force, so obey our orders."

The third option, and the one I can't help but be in partial agreement with, is the Iran-Contra option. Similar to the whole Reagan administration affair, I can't help but wonder if some back room dealing was done by the US and its counterparts to plan the assasination and use it as a method to encourage public support of an American invasion into Syria. Now, don't get me wrong-- I'm not saying it was a bad idea at all. It was probably a good strategic move; technically it wasn't necessarily the "right" thing to do, but hell, the war has to happen sooner or later, so we might as well get it over with, especially while there's an administration in charge that knows what its doing when it comes to foreign policy 98% of the time. That, and the ideology behind it agrees with the Rumsfeld tack-- if you can't solve a problem, make it bigger. Another thing that makes me very suspicious is the haste in which the US is pulling our ambassador to Syria out of the country. All of a sudden we're cutting diplomatic ties based solely on probable suspicion? We don't do things like that; Abbas is coming to the White House, for crap's sake!

I told my parents months before the election that the next big White House PR move would be to emphasize a growing conflict with Iran in the press. Let it build in the media for a while; take public opinion polls, build up public support for the idea, and we'll be in there six months after Bush is re-elected. This isn't a new-fangled political strategy invented for cable news; anyone here Remember the Maine? So, my question is: is this Syrian assasination plot the cherry on top of the Iran sundae? Today's news reports via Drudge state that Israeli intelligence has reported that within 6 months, Iran will have the knowledge it takes to build a nuclear bomb, and by the end of the year, they'll have one ready to launch. (P.S. Israel's buying 500 bunker-busting bombs from US... and I doubt they're going to be using them in Gaza any time soon.) Meanwhile, Iran has vowed to support Syria in case of an American attack.

There's a verse in one of the Psalms that reads "In spring, the time when wars begin..."


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